An Integrated Market and Credit Risk Portfolio Model (pdf)

We present a multi-step model to measure portfolio credit risk that integrates exposure simulation and portfolio credit risk techniques. Thus, it overcomes the major limitation currently shared by portfolio models with derivatives. Specifically, the model is an improvement over current portfolio credit risk models in three main aspects. First, it defines explicitly the joint evolution of market factors and credit drivers over time. Second, it models directly stochastic exposures through simulation, as in counterparty credit exposure models. Finally, it extends the Merton model of default to multiple steps. The model is computationally efficient because it combines a Mark-to-Future framework of counterparty exposures and a conditional default probability framework.